It has taken me so long to collect my thoughts on the current crisis in Ukraine because 1) I never could understand what Putin is trying to accomplish and 2) I don't trust any of the news coming across my various feeds.
For weeks President Biden babbled about the imminent invasion of Ukraine but I never understood why Putin would invade, so I figured it was just an example of a POTUS trying to change the subject (*). The military maneuvers along the Ukrainian border that Biden continually cited are operations that tend to be planned months (if not years) in advance, so it still seemed to me like POTUS was just blowing a relatively ordinary occurrence out of proportion to deflect attention. And when Putin gave a rambling speech (which was filled with talking points that he's been saying for years, not exactly something new) about the territorial history of Russia, it seemed designed to inflame Western pundits rather than a preamble of what was to come, so I still didn't buy that an invasion was coming.
So when the invasion actually did occur, I was blindsided because, well, I've spent much of my life doubting what I see on TV.
Initially, it looked like the Russian forces methodically loaded into the eastern territories of Ukraine and simultaneously seized the Kiev airport. But, when Ukrainian forces took the airport back, social media was inundated with news that the Russians were losing and the mighty Ukrainians were on the rise. But, day after day, it felt like the Russians were still slowly but surely accumulating territory.
One thing I think I can confidently say is that Putin wants to get rid of the pro-Western influence in the Ukrainian intelligentsia. How this invasion is meant to accomplish that...well....I dunno. I don't see how loading in tanks is supposed to change the minds of the resolute pro-Western, anti-Moscow fancy pants set in Kiev. If that crowd escaped to Poland and Romania, wouldn't that be right up Putin's alley? We think of refugees as poor huddled masses and that's true over time; but the first batch of refugees tend to be the rich people, the educated, influential moneyed classes that know when its time to get the heck out of Dodge. Aren't those the people Putin is trying to get rid of? He needn't kill them, seems like escorting them to the Polish and Romanian frontiers would be much easier than trying to militarily subdue the entire nation.
The peace talks that have sporadically popped up over the last few weeks seem to be really starting in earnest now, seems like this is all winding down. So what did Putin accomplish?
The eastern territories of Donetsk and Luhansk seem to be pretty well out of Kiev's grasp now. And the southern territory along the Sea of Azov seems to be locked down by Russian armaments. The "land bridge" to Crimea seems pretty well intact. And that's really about it. Seems like Putin would've wanted to take all of the Black Sea-adjacent territory to keep that "land bridge" going all the way to Moldova--and perhaps that is still the plan--but for now it doesn't seem like Putin wants to reach past Crimea. From here, I would suggest any other territorial gains will be given back as the Russians recede.
Okay. So what does Putin get out of that? He has liberated the chunks of Ukraine that were the most pro-Moscow....but doesn't that just make the rest of Ukraine more solidly anti-Moscow? How is that an improvement for Putin? Seems like an awful lot of effort to take what he more or less already had, while further inflaming the parts he didn't have. Furthermore, Zelensky is now in line to give away the districts that didn't vote for him, so hasn't this military action just strengthened Zelensky's hold on the rest of Ukraine?
Was the point to threaten Europe? I don't see how this would accomplish that or why he would want to do that anyway. The most excitable pundits thought that Poland was the next stop on Putin's tour but, dude, he never even came close to Poland. And considering how well the Ukrainians fought back without NATO involvement, how on earth can you think that Poland is in any way threatened by this advance?
Was the point to completely annex Ukraine? I don't see why he would need to do that or how a column of tanks would get that done. If Putin was under the impression that just loading in some soldiers would cause Ukraine to collapse, well, that didn't work (and since I never thought that would work, I have trouble believing that's what Putin thought). And h's already got a pretty good grip on Ukraine's trade, seems like politically cultivating the pro-Moscow elements in Kiev (there must be some) would be infinitely more valuable more than a full-on invasion (dude, they have bribery in Kiev just like everywhere else, so much cheaper than an invasion).
Was the point to keep Ukraine out of the EU? I don't think so. When Yanukovych was negotiating for EU acceptance between 2010 and 2013, Ukraine's parliament passed numerous pieces of legislation to appease the Europeans and Putin never did anything to stop it. Indeed, in 2013, Putin was willing to be a part of the negotiations--it was the EU that balked at that suggestion. I don't see that Putin ever did anything to stop Ukraine's admittance to the EU and, again, a column of tanks doesn't really keep that from happening anyway.
Was the point to destabilize NATO and/or the EU? Maybe, but I'm not sure how any of these military moves get that done. And, in fact, seemingly the opposite has happened, since even Finland and Switzerland expressed newfound interest in NATO and the rest of Europe (re: Germany) actually pledged to increase their defense spending (which they have mostly pledged to do in the past, so....maybe not really that big of a deal). (**)
Was Putin defeated? Well, not exactly. He did carve off a hunk of pro-Russian territory that he won't likely give back in negotiations and strengthened his position vis-à-vis Crimea, which won't be going back in any kind of peace agreement. So, Ukraine seems likely to concede territory here.
Was Putin victorious? Well, not exactly. Again, he carved off some territory for further Russian control, but since those people were already (largely) on Moscow's side, seems like this just weakens his position in the rest of Ukraine. All of that territory was theoretically more valuable to Putin as part of Ukraine (an internal fifth column) rather than as part of Russia. So what was gained?
Authoritarians fall prey to demanding so much subservience from their People that they never really know what's going on. Mao discovered that in the 1950s: he kept demanding specific targets from the party apparatchiks and meting out such brutal punishments when they failed, that all of his underlings just kept lying to him to save their own hides. (Happens to capitalists, too: all General Electric shareholders will remember the disastrous rule of CEO Jeff Immelt, a dude that just didn't like hearing bad news, so no one bothered to tell him his company was crumbling) If you've got no taste for the Truth, then everyone will gladly lie to you. (***)
Did Putin simply fall prey to the surrounding himself with toadies? Maybe. On the other hand, this last month may have been a house cleaning (for example, these tales of generals killed in battle...how many of them were shot in the back?) and Putin may have a clearer sense of his military power than ever before. Perhaps the less effective parts of his military machine where sacrificed to make the rest of the machine more ready. (Ehhh, ideally, we'll never find out)
I never thought the invasion was gonna happen. I was mystified when it did happen. I never understood why it was happening. And now that it seems to be winding down, I can't really see what the point of any of it was.
I think I'll keep going with these Ukraine posts but I have the sneaking suspicion I'm never going to grasp why any of this happened. And the coming posts on this topic will likely be a continuation of my confusion. We'll see, perhaps a clear picture will emerge, but I doubt it.
(*) Oh, hey, good news: Coronavirus is over! Yeah...Covid-19 is finally the footnote it always deserved to be.
(**) Yeah, actually that part of it could still be working in Putin's favor: the rhetoric ginned up by Putin's advance will likely turn back the other way (re: even more American involvement in Europe), when the Europeans realize (or tell themselves) that Putin is weak and incapable of being much of a real threat. NATO may well end up weaker rather than stronger by their newfound confidence. Not that any of that was really Putin's doing, but the backward effect of now seeing Russia as even less of a threat could mean even more of a retreat for NATO.
(***) That message was to you, Media-loving Americans: News is not Truth, it is Entertainment. Indulge at your own peril.
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