Okay, I think I'm ready to write about Covid-19. Most of what I'm about to write is what I thought a week and a half ago but I feared writing at the time because it felt too optimistic in the face of impending tragedy. But since we're on the very precipice of that coming tragedy, I feel a little more secure about writing, a little less like I'm tempting fate. I think fate is already here now and I can speak to it eye to eye.
I think the ugliness in America is about to take off. The next two weeks will likely suck real bad. NYC, Atlanta and Denver are looking like war zones and San Francisco and Los Angeles (and why not Philadelphia and DC, too?) are getting there, too. So far the quarantine has been fun and games (our toilet paper obsession indicates we're a nation of Al Bundys, which is not heartwarming facing into a storm), but as the virus spreads we'll see more outages in food production, energy distribution and probably even basic utilities across entire zip codes. As long as the grocery stores and gas stations hold out and as long as there's internet, I feel like Americans can bunker down like no one else; but those amenities will be tested along the way and how we react will be telling. But so far nothing has deviated my original thoughts, so I'll try to recapture them.
So not quite two weeks ago (Friday, March 13) when it became apparent that quarantining was the only way to go it seemed to me we'd be on a 6-week plan, something like this: in two weeks we'd have a lot more testing done and we'd be able to replace models with data, we'd be terrified to learn that testing will (likely) show that the virus is waaaaaaay more wide spread than we anticipated and this would lead to another two weeks of quarantine. After two more weeks, the bodies would start piling up and the virus would spread a little wider and quarantine would feel even more like a necessity. After two more weeks, the deaths would taper off, the science would be better, the healthcare would become steadily more active and productive and the end of quarantining would at least be in sight.
And though many will die in that six week span, many others will be taking better care of themselves and their surroundings, they'll be eating healthier, cleaning more thoroughly, driving less, generally treasuring their happiness in a way most Americans just don't, and they'll likely emerge with a stronger sense of sense of purpose, a newly articulated desire for social interaction and a whole new appreciation of work. I don't say that as a cock-eyed optimist, I really do believe that is the likely outcome. The death rates of the virus are scary to those initially exposed to the virus, but pushing off exposure--the name of the game--will keep death rates from spiraling into Walking Dead territory (which I think is an entirely unlikely scenario). And I wouldn't be surprised to see a baby boom in the next 9-12 months, so overall death rates may well find replacement (in a species-level sense).
What's happening is that the virus is coming for us and we will all get it. Oh yeah, that's worth remembering: we're not avoiding this, it's going to get each and every one of us. But the hope is that by pushing off that initial contact, we each give ourselves a vastly greater chance of surviving the virus because in the coming future a) we'll have a better sense of how to handle it, b) the virus itself will be weaker and less dangerous and c) the healthcare structures around us will be able to assist us rather than being overwhelmed by other virus-infected masses. At that point circulating among others will be quite a bit less dangerous, though big events will probably be rare at first.
The problem with the 6-week plan is in six weeks this will still be the same plan. Letting everybody get back to normal won't seem like a good idea if the virus re-emerges and the numbers start ticking higher again. So I would expect the quarantine to continue at least 12 weeks and in that time testing should've spread enough to target the proper locales to quarantine and which ones can ease up restrictions on movement and/or interaction. The places where the virus has spread worst should be the first places to come back from it, as more residents recover from infection, life can edge back toward normal.
None of this is really over until either a vaccine is found or the overall penetration of the virus is so deep that quarantining no longer matters. Of the former, the thought is 12-18 months; of the latter only massive amounts of testing will tell, so I'd say at least 12-18 months. So dig in, America, social distancing is is gonna be with us for a while. And destined to be one of the great days in American history is the day spreading the virus becomes the correct line of action (that's probably a few years down the road--but that day will come whether we realize it or not).
Again, I'd say 12 weeks at the absolute earliest on getting back to the new normal. I put that day at June 5, 2020. If things are as bad as they are today on June 5, then we can stop being scared because fear will just be a waste of precious time. But I do not anticipate that events will be as dire as today and that seems like a reasonable time for the powers-that-be to have formed some kind of plan for getting people back to work (or paying them to remain at home).
Can the NBA start playing again by June 5? Can we start getting summer action movies by June 5? Will museums and theaters and public parks get back to being full again by June 5? I dunno. I kinda doubt it but by June 5 we'll have a much better sense of where to go and how to get there. Until then we just gotta hope that grocery stores and gas stations can keep it going. (I think they will in America and I think they will around the globe, too;
The world will be stronger when this has passed, that is the good thing to look forward to. Viruses occur because nature is constantly testing us (re: trying to kill us) and each obstacle that does not kill us makes us stronger (one thought, for example, is that Covid-19 has shown tendencies of strengthening the arterial walls around the heart, which may be a brace for heart disease). The earth is trying to make us stronger and it will succeed (eventually) but first it will make us wait in solitude.
That the virus will pass and when it does humankind will in the long run be better off....is this too optimistic? No. Strengthening through endurance is the way of things, this has happened numerous times before (and will happen again). Stay smart, stay strong, stay alive, that's all one can do in the face of nature's tests.
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