Wow, this was a bombshell! The death of a sitting justice is always awkward but in the lame duck period of the sitting president and an election year, this will throw the Court of whack for probably two years.
First -- This season's Court docket was loaded with controversial cases: abortion, affirmative action, executive power, immigration, etc. To lose a Justice in the midst of this will result in a lot of inconclusive results. And considering that the next Supreme Court season starts before the election, that means 2016-17 will roll with only 8 justices, too. (Hell, a new nominee couldn't even up for confirmation for another year, virtually impossible for Scalia's replacement to have any impact until the 2017-18 season) So the next few years should pile up quite a backlog before the next Justice even gets to take the oath.
Next -- Will President Obama be able to replace him? Well...I mean...no fuckin' way, right? The Republican Congress hasn't let Obama do anything for the last 8 years, what are the chances they're gonna let him stick a new Justice on the Court right as he's leaving office? The stonewall will begin pronto, I reckon. And does the stonewalling on this issue avalanche into a complete denial of Obama's impact or will it lead into some trade-offs? For example, I suspect the Republican Congress really wants to pass TPP, especially considering how negative all of the current presidential candidates are on the topic, but they're hesitant to give Obama any victories. But Congress might throw Obama a bone on TPP because Congress really wants to pass it anyway; or it may get bound up with Scalia's death and go out with the bathwater, leaving the next president to decide whether it comes back ext year.
Down the Line -- This really throws a wrench into the current presidential campaigns, especially on the Republican side. Cruz would nominate another Scalia but Trump would not (indeed, I suspect Trump might reach out to Janice Rogers Brown, a 3rd rail personality on both sides of the political divide who might look to Trump like an interesting prize). Rubio, like Cruz, would probably favor another hard core Catholic right winger but Bush wouldn't, nor would (I suspect) Kasich. Obviously they'll all want a right winger but in this crowd there are varying levels of cultural conservatism and being hard core on economic and political issues may or may not lend itself to telling gays who can they make paperwork with. If the Republican electorate really paid attention, the next Supreme Court nomination might make all the difference in this race. Also, paradoxically, it makes Trump the moderate candidate as he is...well, let's be honest: he's a Democrat, not a Republican, so we have to assume he'd be looking for a Kennedy more than a Thomas. On the Democrat side, it's a much easier call: both Sanders and Clinton would look for the next Elena Kagan.
Obviously Justice Scalia himself was a polarizing figure and most folks will comment purely on whether they liked or disliked him. Personally, I don't really care. Whether I agreed with him or not, I thought he was thoroughly competent justice and had as much right to speak his mind as anyone we've ever put on the Court. (The problem with Americans is they think have to like everything, Democracy leads to inevitable power of popularity. Said it before, I'll say it again: Democracy is way overrated) I'm more interested in the extremely awkward timing of his passing. The Court will be in turmoil for probably two years, something not unheard of in American history, but not something I've seen in my lifetime.
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